Jim Macdonald has a depressing post on Making Light explaining how the misadventure in Iraq has long gone irrecoverably pear-shaped, and no amount of ’strategy changes’ can turn it round. Not that it will stop the Freepi from trying to blame the likely final unravelling on the left, particularly now the Democrats now control the US congress.
But I pray that Charlie Stross is wrong about the likely endgame:
The “last helicopter out of the embassy in Saigon” scenario is optimistic.
It was obvious that the war was illegal, immoral, and to be fought under false pretenses as far back as summer 2002, when the White House and Downing Street began spinning on the pretext for hostilities in a manner that would have made Joseph Goebbels blush. (I’m not kidding. Re-reading Shirer’s “Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” with an eye for the propaganda campaign against Poland during spring and supper of 1939 makes the parallels utterly, blatantly, clear.)
It was also obvious that the aftermath was going to be a complete clusterf**k when the rift between the Powell State Department and the Ministry of War^W^W^WRumsfeld-controlled DoD resulted in the DoD trashing State’s detailed plans for administering Iraq after the invasion.
I don’t know what drugs the neocons were taking to come out with that rubbish about being greeted with flowers, but they seem to have actually believed it, which only makes the resulting fiasco pathetic as well as stupid.
Finally, when the military governor sacked the entire Iraqi army … then it was clearly only a matter of time before it was going to be “occupation: game over, you lose”. (Six. Hundred. Thousand. Men with automatic weapons. And no jobs. WTF did they think kicking them out of their barracks and mess tents was going to achieve? The mind, she boggles.)
But this latest idiocy …
“12-18 months” indeed.
In 12-18 months the remaining allied forces in Iraq will have their work cut out to evacuate all their personnel, abandoning their bases in place, and fighting their way out to the border with Kurdistan or Kuwait. If they manage to organize the evacuation for autumn/winter/spring (avoiding the 50-degree death march of summer) and if they can protect their ammunition and fuel dumps along the route, they might survive. If not, it’s going to look more like the First Afghan War than Vietnam.
I’d been hoping against hope that we hadn’t yet reached the tipping point. But the stories coming out Iraq have been getting more and more depressing of late, and can no longer be written off as defeatist propaganda from a traitorous leftist media. I think we passed the final tipping point several months ago. We’ve lost. If there ever was a chance of a favourable outcome, then the criminal incompetance of Rumsfeld, Bremer and the rest have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
There’s an old story about a motorist hopelessly lost in country lanes in a remote part of Ireland, who stopped to ask the local the way to the town he was trying to reach. “If I were you”, said the local, “I wouldn’t start from here”.
Iraq is like that.
I really don’t know what’s the best course now, but it’s looking increasingly likely that we’ll have to choose between the least bad of several pretty appalling options. Unfortunately Bush and Blair, along with a diminishing band of True Believers, still seem to be in denial.